Coronavirus predictions...

ProfD

ProfD

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Theunknowncomik said:
:(
As for the "Virus" Well that's another story... Why this "Virus" is of such a concern I wonder.... Is it media driven, an over reaction or maybe something we aren't being told about? :(
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It’s not a “Virus” it’s a virus.
B69D1E52-427C-4804-A0FF-D9F4B15DFDC7.jpeg

It’s highly contagious, spread in air and on surfaces. The death rate from it currently (15 Mar 2920) is 3.6%, 1% in Oz (3 died from 249 cases) . Mainly in those over 60 but 50+ are more vulnerable than younger people. Infants seem not to catch it.

There’s strong messaging and travel alerts and country lockdowns, not to frighten and create panic but the opposite. Information is power. Early action to limit people being exposed and travelling and spreading it helps limit the spread and impact until an immunisation is developed. TheYouTube below explains why having a growth rate below 1 means the infection doesn’t go “viral”. Pardon the pun.

We can minimise personal and global risks by doing some simple things: Wash hands with soap, water and dry with a clean towel, especially before eating food. Self isolate if feeling cold/flu like symptoms and phone for medical advice. Cough into your elbow sleeve.

More: Aust Health Dept
YouTube explains exponential spread.
 
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ProfD

ProfD

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stovo82 said:
A computer has predicted between 100 million to 1 billion people will die from the Corona Virus.
Nothing can be done now and we just have to wait and see how it unfolds.
Governments have not acted quickly enough and it takes years to develop vaccines.
The Spanish Flu 1918 to 1919 killed between 50 to 100 million people around the globe.
The Spanish Flu killed more than the two world wars combined.
Corona Viris = Spanish Flu 2.0!
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There are a number of differences between the situations. We have 4x more people on the planet and cheap international air travel, but we also have much more knowledge about reducing the growth rate below 1 (where it doesn’t go “viral”).
 
Farm Boy 2

Farm Boy 2

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That was the best bit of Leftwing crap ever produced the message at the end absolutely nails it.
 
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ProfD

ProfD

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Farm Boy 2 said:
WTF I said it was good and the message at the end was excellent
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Sorry, farm vernacular “leftwing crap” got the better of me. I couldn’t tell if you were taking the piss out of those taking the piss, or objecting. I thought it was outstanding.
 
Farm Boy 2

Farm Boy 2

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Everyone should view that post by Madmax the graph explains everything . although Peta Credlin had exactly the same graph on TV yesterday.
 
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ProfD

ProfD

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Farm Boy 2 said:
Everyone should view that post by Madmax the graph explains everything . althoudh Peta Credlin had exactly the same graph on TV yesterday.
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Agreed.

This YouTube also explains things like the number of cases is 10x every 16 days on average. This doesn’t take account that those over it may not be infectious.

So Australia is at 214 (15/3/20) infected but at 2140 by end of March and 210,000 by end April.

Perth has 18 cases now, 2.14 Million without it. It’d be rare to pick it up at the moment, but by end of May, unchecked, it could be 1.8 out of 2.14 Million (75%).

Risk assessment principles might mean workers limit what they provide (ie no GF kissing) and screen to exclude those who were O/S in the last fortnight or who have a temp. It’d be possible to keep working until the exposure rate gets to 1, 5 or 10% perhaps, depending on your risk appetite. At that point it might be a good time for a stay at home holiday for a month.
 
stovo82

stovo82

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The world's population today is 3 to 4 times greater than 1918.
Is it fair to assume that the death toll will be much higher than in 1918?
Back then they were all in denial and had no vaccine for the mysterious virus.
Back then they laughed at it like we are doing now.
I assume same rate of infection rate and death rate of 1918 hitting a larger global population.
 
Slugger1

Slugger1

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My prediction is that some amongst us will be further reduced to heartless bastards who dont give a shit about those less fortunate than them!

Go survival of the fittest!

Link not working so taken down
 
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sparky

sparky

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Weighing up the risks and think it's time to stop visiting the Amp girls for a while
Not looking forward to the consequences but better than the risk of getting sick
How many others have stopped or soon will be?
Phoebe said:
370 South St, Pulled all there adverts,..
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They shut the doors Sunday I think for as long as the virus is around they say
And as I mentioned last night,a few favs from TBC and around are going back home for good
I know of at least 3 so far
 
ProfD

ProfD

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stovo82 said:
The world's population today is 3 to 4 times greater than 1918.
Is it fair to assume that the death toll will be much higher than in 1918?
Back then they were all in denial and had no vaccine for the mysterious virus.
Back then they laughed at it like we are doing now.
I assume same rate of infection rate and death rate of 1918 hitting a larger global population.
Click to expand...
The infection rate and death rates and age profile of the susceptible are different. Our knowledge and medical systems are very different. A comparison article is here.
 
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