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Coronavirus predictions...

N

Night Owl Ciao

Link not working so taken down
 
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sparky

sparky

Legend Member
Points
15
Hbf just cancelled the run for a reason and i got a wechat message saying an escort place i east perth is closing for a while
Just the beginning
 
Kodie VIP Canberra

Kodie VIP Canberra

Legend Member
Points
0
Goodstuff=Good one.... Sabredog never thought of that.... But i still would take this virus seriously... Hygiene is the answer, remember the hand sanitiser
 
CurveSurfer

CurveSurfer

Bronze Member
Points
0
Just on the numbers:

if there was no human intervention (isolation, avoidance strategies etc), theoretically it can spread to 2/3rds of population pretty rapidly with viral geometric growth. As we see it is doubling every few weeks and will keep doing so

China says it has controlled it, but I don't trust CCP figures. These are the same guys who detained the original Dr that blew the whistle in the first place (and subsequently died from the virus)

Currently 3.4% death rate, but the numbers are skewed heavily to the elderly and more moderately to males.
- a child catching the virus has 1 in 500 chance of death
- a 50yr old has a 1 in 30 chance of death
- 80+ has 1 in 7 chance of death.

Death is typically not from the virus, but secondary infections like Pneumonia

The spread depends on how soon they can develop a vaccine (let's see the anti-vaxxers turn this one down..)

A typical cycle is 18 months, but labs have received the virus genome and could theoretically have one in several weeks, but... human clinical trials take time and are difficult to expedite.

So if left unchecked, without vaccine (both of which won't happen), up to 175 Million globally could die, 650,000 of those in Australia.

It is very unlikely to get that bad, because people will self quarantine, avoid crowds, wear masks and glasses, scrupulously sanitize etc, and they will develop a vaccine, but it will get a lot worse before it gets better...
 
Katherine

Katherine

Reception @DarwinLangtrees
Silver Member
Points
0
Darwin had its first fatality last week, I've been trying my hardest not to stress too much about it (corona) as most people are in a panic due to the gov bringing all the evacuees here. On the bright side now there is a stimulus package 🤣
 
Phoebe

Phoebe

Some Village lost an Idiot!
Legend Member
Points
0
Link not working so taken down
 
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